La Gazzetta del Mezzogiorno, Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Giorgio Nebbia nebbia@quipo.it
Where will all the oil in order to walk a thousand million vehicles, increasing at a rate of about 50 million a year? So far, the danger of depletion of global oil reserves has been discussed by some of the "pessimistic" and some, even more pessimistic, recalled the predictions made in 1956 by a Hubbert that is approaching or has already occurred , a spike in the amount of oil extracted from reserves, beyond which it will not be easy, perhaps not even possible, to increase the amount of oil produced each year, now about 4.3 billion tons. "The peak oil will not say that, but there will always be less available in the bowels of the earth.
some time, some governments and companies are prepared to study the extent of oil reserves in the world. A few days ago an article in the German weekly "Der Spiegel", usually well informed, reported that a special section of study on the future of the Zentrum für Transformation (the center for the analysis of the transformations) of the German army had drawn up a report, yet reserved for the German government, setting out alcuni scenari di mutamenti della politica sia diplomatica sia militare necessari nel caso in cui si verifichi davvero una diminuzione della disponibilità del petrolio nel mondo. Il fatto che se ne occupino i militari fa pensare che la cosa sia seria.
Il petrolio è indispensabile e per ora non sostituibile: con l’elettricità si possono far funzionare le industrie, scaldare le abitazioni, assicurare alcuni trasporti, e l’elettricità può essere ottenuta anche senza petrolio, utilizzando il carbone, il gas naturale, con il moto delle acque e con le forze del Sole, del vento, eccetera, ricorrendo, se si vogliono accettarne i rischi ambientali, i costi e i pericoli, all’energia nucleare. Ma il settore dei road transport of people and goods, based on internal combustion engines, those of the current trucks and cars requires a liquid fuel that can only be obtained from oil (fuels derived from agriculture have so far only a marginal use and prospects) and represents about one third of all energy produced and consumed in the world.
This is not to debate on climate change, atmospheric pollution, health, the monetary costs of energy, transport, cargo, is to discuss where and how to go get the oil. Who owns the oil is the master of the world can be Muslims or Christians, dictators o buoni governanti. Esclusa, come hanno dimostrato le guerre perdute in Irak, Afghanistan Asia centrale, Somalia, la conquista militare dei pozzi petroliferi o degli oleodotti altrui, chi ha bisogno di petrolio dovrà trattare con i padroni del petrolio e baciargli le mani. Il gesto del presidente del consiglio dell’Italia (che dipende quasi totalmente dalle importazioni del petrolio) nei confronti di Gheddafi, può aver anticipato quello che tanti altri governanti dovranno fare adottando un nuovo stile di diplomazia.
Bisognerà diventare amici dei padroni del petrolio e nemici dei loro nemici; si profilano nuovi rapporti con Israele e gli stati arabi, fra paesi cristiani e quelli musulmani. Chi possiede il petrolio diventerà ricchissimo, which will lead to a new class stratification, and today the new rich are Arabs, Muslims, Asians, Russians and admire and adore them when they arrive with their boats and fabulous villas, perhaps forgetting that they are generous with money wasteful taken away from us thirsty for oil, destined to become poorer. We must go and find oil anywhere: in the deep seas, in the oil shale in the icy Arctic, in the swamps of the African rivers, in the midst of tropical forests. More than preserve the Panthers and nature conservation.
The less accessible reserves are, the greater the damage to the environment, as we have seen in the Gulf Mexico, because the newspapers have spoken, but the newspapers do not speak of the dozens of oil spills and pollution that occur every year somewhere in the world, oceans and ports by tankers. A few numbers show how great a dependence on oil now not only masters of Europe and North America, but also new industrial giants of Asia. Every vehicle in the world consumes every year, on average, two thousand gallons of gasoline or diesel fuel and produce 1000 liters of fuel it takes about two tonnes of oil. In Italy about 40 million vehicles circulating apply every year about 40 billion gallons of fuel.
Only a small fraction of these fuels could be replaced by ethanol or biodiesel from agricultural sources, which are necessary, certainly, but not decisive. Electric vehicles or those with lower fuel consumption, decrease only slightly, the demand for oil. If governments, especially in industrial countries, will not have the courage to propose painful to buy fewer cars, to launch a new energy planning and radical changes in the mobility of people and goods in the structure of the city, in the location of homes and places work, production processes, so as to slow the growing demand for oil, must be prepared not only to increased public and private monetary costs, but serious political dependence and instability e insicurezza.
Dovranno essere preparati a devoti rapporti con capi politici e religiosi oggi considerati impresentabili, solo per sfuggire al ricatto della chiusura degli oleodotti che portano nelle nostre strade il petrolio indispensabile per muoverci e vivere. E chi volesse fare lo schizzinoso, come Pinocchio quando si è rifiutato di spingere il carretto di carbone, può sentirsi dire: “Mangiati due belle fette della tua superbia e bada di non prendere un’indigestione”.
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